Big 12 Preview

Hola, football fans. Here it is, your first conference preview of the week. Put on your thinking caps and take a walk with me. We start with the hometown of college football (although it was born in New Jersey...go figure...no really...Rutgers University is the birthplace of college football)--the Big 12. There are two divisions here, so let's break down each division in order that they are likely to finish.


BIG 12 SOUTH

Texas - Texas returns 14 starters this year from last year’s championship team (kudos James). Unfortunately, one of them is not Vince Young, aka superman. Still, a loaded receiving core, a solid stable of running backs, and the heart of the O-Line intact all bode well for the heir apparent blue chip QB Colt McCoy (rsFresh.). With three of four returning along the D-Line and two of three back in the Linebacking corps, this defense looks plenty ready to stifle opponents. The Longhorns are a lock for another Big 12 championship, but can they think even bigger…probably so, because their schedule features only four away games and an out of conference schedule containing North Texas, Sam Houston State, and Rice. Their biggest roadblock is the September 9 showdown against Ohio State.

Oklahoma - Oklahoma’s heart and soul is its defense this year. Returning eight starters, Coach Stoops will pressure the QB with a talented D-Line, and super LB Rufus Alexander (102 tackles last year), and an excellent secondary. Adrian Peterson may make another Heisman run, and the five sophomore WRs are young but talented. Still, replacing four of five OL and having an idiot QB who reports illegal booster cash to the IRS as income means that the offense may struggle this year. Sure Bomar was not a veteran, but he was your starter for a reason, coach. Good luck. Oh yeah, Mack Brown says thanks.

Texas Tech - Tech returns 15 starters this year. Their offense will not struggle under the leadership of super-sophomore Graham Hall, who was a very able backup last year. The receiving corps returns all of its amazing talent, and four linemen return to block for an offense wide open enough to let anyone run for a huge average. The front seven of Tech's defense looks strong, but the secondary looks suspect. The defense will not be as good as it was last year, and as a result, neither will this team.

Texas A&M - Coach Fran is on the Hot Seat, and in my opinion will not be back to A&M after this year. A new QB and some inexperienced Wideouts leave the Aggie ground game getting too much attnetion to be effective, even if they return four blockers. With no proven pass ruch, weak LBs, and a hideous secondary that allowed over 300 passing yards per game last year, the Aggies look to do well just to eek out a winning season.

Oklahoma State - Alternating QBs can be helpful unless they are both mistake-prone like the Pokes QBs who each threw for less than 50% complete last year. Solid WRs and RBs work behind a decent O-Line, but this offense needs to be less generous and stop turning the ball over to be more effective. Losing three starters at LB hurts, losing two of the three regulars who serve behind them on top of that is downright excruciating. Returning two DBs and three DL is still not enough to make this defense good enough to win in this league.

Baylor - Baylor's offense will be solid this year. QB Shawn Bell should have another decent year, but without more talent at WR, it can't take the heat off of the RBs enough to make the big play. The Lines both look okay, and the defensive backfield also looks okay, but the LBs will have to overachieve to stiffen up the defense. Look for Baylor to not quite return to the glory of last year.


BIG 12 NORTH

Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are still getting used to west coast football, but the 16 returning starters should help. Sr. Zac Taylor should continue to improve, especially with both starting WRs back and some really good TEs. Still, with no proven runners (last year they averaged 2.7 YPC), and a rebuilt line that wasn’t good enough to do very much last year, things look sketchy on the ground this year. The good news is that the defense was solid last year despite a bad offense and they should only improve. Corey McKeon is a superstar at MLB and Cortney Grixby is a good corner despite being a little undersized. Look for Nebraska to win the Big 12 North, but don’t be amazed as this is roughly equivalent to winning the office karaoke contest—the most talented of the lack-luster.

Missouri - Even though super TEs Rucker and Coffman return, super QB Brad Smith doesn't. Missouri has very talented RBs and some experienced WRs, as well as four returning starters on the line. Every member of the DL returns, not to mention some solid LBs, as well as a secondary led by David Overstreet who had 100 tackles last year. Don't be surprised if Missouri surprises Nebraska. It will be hard in this conference to be a major player because the talent level is simply not equal to Texas and Oklahoma, but this program is headed in the right direction.

Colorado - New coach Dan Hawkins may restore some of the punch to a much maligned Buffs squad. Look for a QB controversey to be settled by going with the blue-chip true freshman who also happens to be Coach Dan's son, Cody Hawkins. The WRs are a little shaky, and the TE cupboard is bare. The RB stables are not deep, but junior Hugh Charles is a mighty mouse kind of back who should gain more than his 842 yards of last year. The O-Line looks solid, so this should be a plus; however, the D-Line is full of questionmarks. Thaddeus Washington had 112 tackles, four sacks, and two forced fumbles last year at MLB, but he will need some help, especially if the secondary continues to struggle. Hopefully a year of experience will make the DBs more effective.

Iowa State - Ofensive production should be up as the Cyclones welcome back 10 starters this year. Returning to lead the offense is Bret Myer who threw for almost 62% completion percentage last year and 19 TDs to 10 INTs and who only figures to improve as he throws behind four returning OL and to four returning WRs. Hopefully, they can be more balanced as their leading rusher only gained 545 yards last year, though. The biggest problems for this team are on defense though. Matt Robertson leads the LB corps (103 tackles, 1 INT last year), but the secondary only returns one starter and the line is looking to transfers to fill its gaping holes. All in all, it will be a shoot-out season, which rarely turns into a bowl appearance.

Kansas State - Although the mastermind coach is gone, 16 starters return to Manhattan. With a settled QB situation and some solid WRs behind a strong veteran line, KSU deeply needs its running game to catch up so that there can be a little balance, otherewise they will have another year of very limited production. The D-Line returns three starters, but this may not be great news as this crew combined for only 4 sacks last year. Brandon Archer and Maurice Mack look to have great years at LB, but returning only one DB makes their pass defense suspect. The Wildcats need more talent to compete in this conference.

Kansas - Losing eight big-play defenders to graduation never helps a team improve. This is a reloading year for Mangino's troops. New QB and new WRs mean that the burden of the offense falls on a decent ground attack behind four returning starters on what should be a good O-Line. New LBs and three new DL mean that the experienced secondary really needs to be effective. Expect Kansas to be a .500 club at best this year.


The honest truth is that any of the top three teams in the South could beat any team from the North in the conference championship game no matter how many times they played it, so look for the BCS participant to be from the South.

My prediciton: Don't mess with Texas.